**Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD exchange rate by end-2026 centers on a controlled depreciation within the BCRA’s inflation-adjusted band regime, with the peso currently near 1,515–1,535 ARS per USD.** Recent analyst consensus from the BCRA’s REM survey points to roughly 1,614 by December, while BBVA Research and others project 1,630, reflecting monthly crawls of 1.8–2.3% that lag expected inflation. Key supports include record export inflows from agriculture and energy (Vaca Muerta), BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding USD 14.5 billion year-to-date, and a narrow parallel-market gap under 1%. Offsetting pressures come from the IMF’s October downgrade of 2026 GDP growth to 2.1% (from 3.5%) and inflation lift to 32.5% average, alongside real peso appreciation that has weighed on competitiveness. Markets price the highest probabilities around 1,550–1,600+, consistent with gradual nominal weakening amid fiscal discipline and external surpluses, though any acceleration in monthly CPI or reserve pressures could shift the path.