**Trader sentiment in the Argentina official USD exchange rate market for end-2026 reflects a closely balanced contest between modest further depreciation and contained movement below 1,600 ARS per USD.** Current levels hover near 1,535 following gradual adjustment within the BCRA’s inflation-linked band, with the Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) median projecting 1,614 by December and BBVA Research forecasting around 1,630. Persistent disinflation—monthly CPI at 1.7% in August and annual rates near 33.5%—combined with fiscal surpluses and BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $14 billion supports a controlled crawl rather than sharp devaluation. Export strength in energy and agriculture, positive real interest rates, and the band’s monthly recalibration to inflation anchor expectations of limited upside. The near-even split between the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets captures uncertainty around the final pace of adjustment before year-end, with any acceleration in monthly inflation or reserve dynamics serving as key swing factors.