The reopened criminal investigation into the Cornell 7 Chi Phi members, prompted by Jane Doe’s September 2026 civil lawsuit detailing alleged drugging and gang rape in October 2024, remains the central driver of trader sentiment. Prosecutors initially declined charges in late 2024 after reviewing her campus police statement, which the DA said did not establish lack of consent under state law, and have highlighted inconsistencies with the later civil complaint. As of mid-October 2026, no felony charges have been filed despite the Tompkins County DA’s announcement to present evidence to a grand jury and New York Governor Hochul’s appointment of a special prosecutor. This combination of prior non-prosecution, evidentiary hurdles, and the unpredictable nature of grand jury outcomes supports the market’s 71.5% implied probability that none of the seven will face felony sex crime charges, while upcoming testimony and any new corroboration serve as near-term catalysts.