A federal judge’s October 13 preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration’s September ban on CNN, MS NOW, and Politico reporters from the White House has kept the outlets’ credentials intact while litigation continues. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, found the revocation likely violated due process and First Amendment protections against viewpoint discrimination and retaliation. The administration promptly appealed, with no court order yet defied. Contempt findings require clear noncompliance after an opportunity to comply, and the compressed timeline through October 31 leaves little room for such proceedings to advance. Traders therefore assign roughly 79 percent probability that the administration will not be held in contempt by the deadline, reflecting the early procedural posture and ongoing appeals process.