Diddy’s 50-month federal sentence for two Mann Act convictions, handed down in October 2025 after acquittals on racketeering and sex-trafficking counts, anchors the market’s 90.4% “No” consensus on release in 2026. Bureau of Prisons records currently project his exit from FCI Fort Dix in early 2028, with recent disciplinary adjustments pushing that date further following reports of contraband access and special treatment. Ongoing civil litigation and a pending Second Circuit appeal add layers of uncertainty but have not altered his custodial status or produced any verified pathway to earlier freedom. Traders view the timeline as sufficiently distant and stable that only an unexpected appellate reversal or substantial sentence reduction could shift the odds before year-end.