**Recent statements from Justice Samuel Alito have anchored trader expectations against a 2026 Supreme Court vacancy.** In early October 2026 interviews, the 76-year-old justice confirmed he considered retiring after the prior term but decided to remain, citing his ability to contribute, and explicitly plans to serve through the current term ending in June or July 2027. He made this choice months earlier and reiterated he does not feel physically or mentally limited. Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest member at 78, has shown no retirement signals despite ongoing speculation tied to his age and the November 3 midterms. Younger justices, including Sonia Sotomayor (72) and Chief Justice John Roberts (71), have no reported indications of stepping down. With nine active justices on the bench and lifetime appointments offering no mandatory retirement age, departures remain discretionary and often strategic. Alito's commitments reduce the near-term likelihood of a vacancy before year-end, even amid lame-duck session possibilities or Senate control shifts. Traders view these factors as creating significant barriers to a 2026 opening, consistent with the 85% implied probability on "No." Historical patterns show justices time exits around favorable confirmation environments, further supporting the current consensus absent new developments.