Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term concludes in May 2027, leaving him in a lame-duck period with diminished legislative leverage amid a fragmented National Assembly and record-low approval ratings near 15 percent. No presidential decree or public timetable has emerged for convening a nationwide referendum under Article 11 or Article 89 by year-end, as government attention centers on student protests, fiscal consolidation, and budget negotiations rather than direct popular consultation. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the “No” outcome because repeated past references to referendums have not advanced amid pre-campaign dynamics. A sudden constitutional impasse or acute political crisis could theoretically prompt action, yet the compressed calendar and institutional constraints make such developments improbable before December 31.