US officials assess that a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 has become increasingly unlikely, citing delays in People’s Liberation Army readiness tied to Beijing’s anti-corruption efforts and a preference to monitor Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election for a potentially more amenable government. This outlook underpins the 89.5% trader consensus against an invasion by the end of 2027. Recent developments include routine Chinese live-fire drills along its coast, continued maritime militia and coast guard patrols east of Taiwan viewed as destabilizing by Washington, and incremental gray-zone pressure rather than large-scale amphibious exercises. Taiwan has responded with higher defense spending and incoming US F-16 deliveries aimed at deterrence, while Beijing’s rhetoric has stiffened modestly without signaling imminent kinetic action.