Japan-China bilateral ties remain strained by Tokyo’s security policies and Beijing’s economic countermeasures, including rare-earth export curbs and maritime activity in disputed waters. Chinese officials have rejected Japanese requests for a direct Xi Jinping–Sanae Takaichi meeting on the margins of the November 2026 APEC summit in Shenzhen, instead offering talks with Premier Li Qiang. U.S. President Donald Trump raised the possibility of engagement during his September summit with Xi, but Beijing signaled it views the dispute as separate from U.S.-China relations and warned of risks tied to Japanese defense developments. These positions, coupled with the absence of confirmed high-level scheduling, shape trader assessments of near-term summit prospects.