**US and China have shown no signs of coordinating to slow frontier AI development, driving the 94.7% market-implied probability of "No."** Both governments continue prioritizing competitive leadership in large language models and autonomous systems, with US officials rejecting regulatory brakes and Chinese policy emphasizing rapid yet controlled advancement through centralized oversight. The late-September Trump-Xi summit produced only a bilateral AI dialogue and incident-notification channel focused on risks like cyberattacks or loss-of-control events, without any pledges to limit model capabilities or training compute. Recent US voluntary industry accords and China's updated safety frameworks further underscore parallel but independent approaches rather than joint pacing. A major shared crisis or breakthrough in verifiable safety benchmarks could theoretically reopen negotiations, though entrenched strategic competition makes such a shift unlikely before year-end.