Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $4,155–$4,185 per ounce amid a corrective pullback below key moving averages, pressured by elevated U.S. Treasury yields near 5.19% on the 10-year note and a firm dollar. Markets price a low probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October FOMC meeting but roughly 85–90% odds of tightening by December following the September 25-basis-point increase. Wednesday’s September CPI release will directly influence rate expectations and real yields, while persistent geopolitical tensions and Brent crude above $106 per barrel sustain inflation concerns. Institutional demand via ETF inflows and central bank purchases provides longer-term support, though near-term sentiment hinges on monetary policy signals versus safe-haven flows.