**You Can See Everything** leads the market at 61% implied probability thanks to its explosive Telluride premiere, rapturous New York Film Festival reception, and widespread critical acclaim for its unconventional portrait of Elizabeth Holmes. The A24 release’s historic Best Picture buzz and strong Critics’ Choice Documentary Award nominations have solidified trader consensus around its frontrunner status, even as the Academy’s documentary branch remains an unpredictable gatekeeper. Other titles including Naza, Musk, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, and 14th sit near 50% as the race remains wide open this early in the cycle, with guild and precursor results still months away. Low-probability longshots face steep barriers given the film’s dominant narrative momentum and platform support heading into the shortlist and nomination phases.