Brock Purdy’s emergence as the 2026 MVP favorite stems from the San Francisco 49ers’ 5-0 start and his league-leading efficiency, including 1,196 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions through five games with a 119.3 passer rating. Traders have bid Purdy to 30.1% implied probability after he orchestrated late scoring drives in a Week 5 road win over the Seahawks, reflecting the market’s emphasis on undefeated teams and low-turnover production. Josh Allen sits at 19.5% as the Bills hold a strong record entering a primetime matchup, while Patrick Mahomes at 11.0% benefits from the Chiefs’ 4-0 mark. Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow round out the next tier amid competitive early-season records, underscoring how quarterback play, team wins and recent statistical edges shape consensus probabilities in this quarterback-dominated award.