**With Tapes and Toasts in the Car** holds the highest implied probability among individual titles at 20.1% due to its multiple Oscar-qualifying festival victories, including the Grand Prix and audience award at Stuttgart’s ITFS plus Best Animation at HollyShorts. These early wins have positioned the German-French short about a terminally ill woman’s cosmic fantasies as the current frontrunner in a crowded field. The remaining listed contenders sit between roughly 6% and 12%, reflecting limited public information on their festival trajectories or guild support so far. With the shortlist still months away in December 2026, the race remains wide open; Academy voters in the Animation and Short Films branches often favor films with strong emotional resonance, distinctive animation styles, or precursor momentum once all 15 eligible entries screen. Traders are pricing in high uncertainty until more qualifiers accumulate awards and reviews surface.