Festival wins at Cannes, Venice, and Toronto have shaped early trader consensus for the five nominations, with Spain’s La Bola Negra (TIFF People’s Choice), Romania’s Fjord (Cannes Palme d’Or), France’s Minotaur (Cannes Grand Prix), Denmark’s Woman Unknown (Venice Golden Lion), and South Korea’s Possible Love emerging as frontrunners. The Academy’s expanded eligibility for major festival winners and strong distributor campaigns from Netflix and Neon add momentum, while historical voting patterns favor films with broad critical support and U.S. theatrical releases. The 15-film shortlist arrives December 15, followed by nominations on January 21, making late reviews and branch screenings the next key swing factors in this crowded field.