Strong global surveillance systems, including WHO’s Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources and International Pathogen Surveillance Network, have detected no novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission capable of triggering a pandemic declaration through mid-October 2026. The large Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 8,700 cases, remains regionally concentrated with limited international chains despite high case fatality. Sporadic avian influenza detections and other respiratory viruses show no efficient person-to-person spread, while existing circulation of SARS-CoV-2 remains moderate without new variants of concern. With roughly 80 days remaining, only an unexpected emergence or rapid escalation of transmissibility in the coming weeks could shift the market-implied odds of 95.5% for no new pandemic.