Trader consensus on a low likelihood of additional U.S. plague cases by year-end stems primarily from established seasonal patterns of Yersinia pestis transmission. Most human infections, typically bubonic and linked to rodent-flea cycles in the Southwest, occur from May through October, with sharp declines in cooler months. Provisional CDC data show just two cases in 2026—an April recovery in Arizona and a June fatality in New Mexico—aligning with or below the annual average of five to seven. No further reports have emerged through mid-October surveillance. While an atypical exposure via infected pets or travel could still produce a case, historical precedent and current monitoring indicate such events are uncommon outside peak season, supporting the market-implied odds.