Democratic Representative Chris Pappas maintains a clear edge in the race for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, driven by consistent polling leads of five to seven points in recent aggregates and stronger fundraising. Both candidates secured their nominations in September primaries, with Pappas defeating a progressive challenger and Sununu overcoming former Senator Scott Brown. A first general-election debate on October 13 highlighted clashes over taxes, healthcare spending, and ties to national figures, while heavy outside spending has flooded the airwaves. The state’s modest Democratic tilt from recent presidential results and Pappas’s established profile as a moderate House member have shaped trader consensus around these probabilities ahead of the November 3 election.