In New Hampshire’s 2nd congressional district, incumbent Democrat Maggie Goodlander faces Republican Lily Tang Williams in a rematch of their 2024 contest, with recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polling showing Goodlander ahead by double-digit margins consistent with the district’s D+2 to D+3 partisan lean. Traders have priced the most likely Democratic victory margins in the 10-25 point range, reflecting historical precedent for the seat, fundraising advantages favoring the incumbent, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts since the September primaries. The independent candidate Robbie Mahrou adds minor vote-splitting potential, while broader midterm dynamics and turnout among college-educated and rural voters could still compress or expand the final margin before November 3.