In New Hampshire’s open 1st congressional district, the general election matchup between Democrat Stefany Shaheen and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo remains closely contested three weeks before November 3 voting. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Shaheen ahead by single digits, reflecting the district’s competitive history and split voter base. Primary results, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics have kept trader-implied probabilities clustered around modest Democratic margins in the 10-15 percent range. Late-campaign events such as additional polling releases, candidate debates, turnout efforts among independents, or shifts in the broader partisan environment could widen or narrow the final margin enough to resolve specific outcome buckets.