Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on October 15 likely between 5°C and 9°C, shaped by mostly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling, light southerly winds, and high humidity near 90% under a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions produce genuine uncertainty around exact overnight lows, with small variations in cloud timing or wind speed able to shift the reading by 2–3°C and explain the near-even market-implied odds between sub-zero and double-digit thresholds. Official verification from the Deutscher Wetterdienst will resolve the market once hourly observations are finalized.