Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a mild overnight period for Munich on October 14, with minimum temperatures likely falling between 7–11°C amid light rain or showers and moderate southwesterly winds. This range aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities across 5–13°C outcomes, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in exact timing of cloud cover, precipitation, and radiative cooling rather than a strong consensus on any single value. Historical October lows average near 6°C, but current atmospheric conditions favor milder readings. Traders will watch the next ECMWF and GFS runs for shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could push the minimum lower or confirm the upper end of the range.