**The closely matched market odds between sub-zero extremes (43.5% for −3°C or below) and milder outcomes (43% for 7°C or higher) reflect substantial uncertainty in overnight minimum temperature forecasts for Munich on October 13.** Latest model guidance shows a range of possible lows centered around 2–4°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and high pressure, which supports efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 15°C. However, small shifts in cloud cover, timing of any weak frontal passage, or slight changes in advection could push the minimum several degrees colder or warmer. This genuine forecast spread, typical 24–48 hours out when models diverge on boundary-layer conditions, drives the balanced trader positioning on both tails rather than clustering around the current consensus range. Updated runs from agencies like DWD or ECMWF will likely narrow the probabilities before resolution.