Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and ICON models indicate the daily minimum temperature in Munich on October 15 will most likely fall between 6–8 °C, driven by mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and a lack of strong radiational cooling under the current high-pressure pattern. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 1–9 °C probabilities and the near-even split between sub-zero and 10 °C-plus outcomes. Autumnal variability in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can still shift the minimum by several degrees in either direction before resolution, while climatological baselines for mid-October show average lows near 6 °C with occasional excursions below 0 °C under clear, calm conditions. Updated model runs and official DWD guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal for traders.