Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a nocturnal minimum near 1–2 °C in Munich under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and moderate radiative cooling after sunset. This setup keeps the lowest temperature close to the -2 °C threshold, with slight differences in cloud cover, dew-point depression, or wind speed able to shift the outcome by 1 °C. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the -2 °C and -3 °C-or-below buckets, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in the final hours of observational data before the daily minimum is recorded at official stations.