Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Lima mayoral market after securing a narrow first-round lead of roughly 27.7% to 26.8% in the October 4 election, ahead of Francis Allison and Carlos Bruce. Official tallies with over 92% of actas processed show his party’s list ahead by about 45,000 votes, consistent with pre-election polling trends favoring the conservative ticket. Remaining disputed ballots and jurisdictional reviews by electoral authorities have not altered the projected outcome, and traders appear to price in the likelihood that the top-listed candidate on the winning slate assumes the mayoralty under Peruvian municipal rules despite ongoing legal questions over immediate re-election eligibility. No major late shifts in the count or court rulings have emerged to change this positioning.