Federal regulatory developments and court rulings have reinforced CFTC oversight of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, limiting momentum for a nationwide ban. Minnesota enacted the first state-level prohibition in May 2026, but a federal judge blocked it on preemption grounds. A March bipartisan Senate bill targeting sports event contracts remains in committee without passage. Multiple states pursue lawsuits or enforcement, yet appeals courts have split on whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules, with Supreme Court petitions pending. CFTC proposals in June and October 2026 aim to formalize event contracts as swaps under its authority rather than prohibit them. These factors have sustained trader consensus against a 2026 federal ban.