**Trader consensus for 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing primaries reflects the completion of most 2026 primary contests and the actual results recorded.** Key defeats included Reps. Daniel Crenshaw (TX-2), Thomas Massie (KY-4), Andy Ogles (TN-5), and Cory Mills (FL-7), driven by factors such as Trump-backed challengers targeting perceived critics or outliers, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and individual controversies or outside spending. This aligns with historical patterns where few House incumbents lose renomination, even in cycles with elevated intra-party competition. With the primary season largely concluded ahead of the November general election, additional losses appear unlikely unless unresolved runoffs or edge cases emerge. Scenarios that could push totals higher include any overlooked special primaries or late disqualifications, though current data shows limited remaining opportunities. The narrow 7-9 band at low probability accounts for the possibility of a small number of additional defeats in the final contests.