**Congressional gridlock and repeated delays on frontier AI governance explain the 65.5% market-implied odds favoring no comprehensive federal framework by end-2027.** Despite multiple 2026 proposals—including the June bipartisan Great American AI Act discussion draft mandating audits for large developers, Sen. Cantwell’s October safety principles assigning NIST risk-based standards for catastrophic risks like autonomous agents and biothreats, and narrower bills on transparency and CISA task forces—no measure has advanced beyond introduction or committee. Partisan divides over preemption of state laws, enforcement mechanisms, and new agencies versus existing regulators, combined with the post-midterm lame-duck calendar and pro-innovation executive orders emphasizing voluntary review, have kept momentum low. Traders see slim odds of bridging these gaps in the remaining legislative window absent major catalyst shifts.