Stable geopolitical conditions and routine tanker operations through the Strait of Hormuz underpin the 95% market-implied probability for 25-29 transits during the week of October 5. Energy traders observe consistent crude and LNG flows amid steady global oil demand, with no reported incidents, sanctions enforcement spikes, or route diversions altering volumes from recent baselines. This positioning reflects aggregated capital at risk pricing in historical weekly averages absent acute Middle East tensions. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden escalation between Iran and regional actors disrupting passage, weather-related delays, or unexpected OPEC+ supply adjustments that reroute vessels, though such events remain low-probability near-term catalysts.