Divided government following the 2026 midterm elections, with Republican control of the White House and Democratic majorities in Congress, drives trader expectations for one or two funding lapses by late 2027. The current continuing resolution expires December 11, 2026, creating an immediate appropriations deadline that markets price as a moderate risk of an initial lapse. Subsequent negotiations over full-year spending bills and the debt ceiling, projected to bind in mid-to-late 2027, add further uncertainty as partisan differences on priorities could produce additional standoffs. Historical patterns under split control show repeated short-term continuing resolutions that sometimes fail to pass cleanly, while the 17 percent probability assigned to zero shutdowns reflects the possibility of timely bipartisan deals. Recent lapses in 2025 and 2026 reinforce the base case for at least one more event before the resolution date.