**Strong labor market conditions and persistently elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have anchored trader expectations for no federal funds rate cuts in 2026.** Following the September 2026 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% target range, FOMC projections showed most participants anticipating a year-end rate near 4.1%, with inflation forecasts revised higher and risks tilted to the upside. Recent data, including August PCE at 3.4% and unemployment near 4.2%, reinforce the view that policy will remain restrictive, consistent with the 96% market-implied probability of zero cuts. Upcoming October and December meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment releases, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly shift this pricing if incoming information alters the inflation trajectory.