Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering performance anchors trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability. Released July 31, the Sony/Marvel title posted the largest domestic opening ever at $360 million, crossed $900 million domestically faster than any prior film, and has already reached $2.51 billion worldwide—more than $700 million ahead of second-place The Odyssey. Strong legs, premium-format demand, and broad audience appeal have locked in its lead as the year’s top earner. Avengers: Doomsday, slated for December 18 with robust presales exceeding $100 million, would require an unprecedented global opening and sustained run to overtake it, a scenario made harder by same-day competition from Dune: Messiah and the late calendar placement.