Incumbent Democrat Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in Hawaii’s November 3 gubernatorial contest, a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters due to the state’s long-term partisan lean and Green’s strong primary performance. With limited general-election polling available, trader consensus clusters probabilities on Democrat margins between 25 and 45 points, reflecting historical turnout patterns, the absence of major campaign disruptions since the August primaries, and uncertainty over final vote share. The near-even split on leading margin brackets and other outcomes captures this range-bound outlook, where small shifts in participation or late-cycle developments could move the result within the favored windows while leaving a Republican win highly improbable.