Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine forces at Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and nearby features have intensified in recent weeks, featuring rammings, water cannon use, blocked resupply and medevac missions, and close aerial intercepts. These incidents, while raising collision risks and prompting mutual accusations plus U.S. diplomatic support for Manila, have remained below the threshold of direct naval or air force engagements. Philippine calls for a binding ASEAN-China Code of Conduct and continued allied naval presence have coincided with Beijing’s increased patrols and construction activity, yet both sides have shown restraint through provisional understandings and avoided escalation into sustained military clashes, supporting trader consensus on the low probability of such an outcome before 2027.