Ontario Premier Doug Ford's mid-October statements threatening to restrict electricity exports in response to U.S. tariffs under President Trump have fueled short-term rhetoric around cross-border energy leverage, yet Ontario quickly suspended a proposed 25% export surcharge after further U.S. tariff warnings and ongoing bilateral trade talks. Actual implementation by year-end faces significant hurdles, including the need for provincial legislation (with the legislature adjourned until late October), grid operator coordination across interconnected systems, and Canada's own reliance on reciprocal power flows. U.S. grid analyses indicate alternative domestic generation and higher prices could absorb disruptions without widespread shortages, while recent Hydro-Québec curtailments stemmed from domestic demand rather than policy retaliation. These factors underpin trader consensus that a full cutoff or throttle remains improbable before December 31.