Traders assign a 75.5% implied probability to an Anthropic IPO closing above $1.8 trillion because the company’s revenue run rate has surged past $65 billion by mid-2026, with internal forecasts pointing to $100–120 billion annualized by year-end, supporting a roughly $2 trillion target valuation that would eclipse SpaceX’s recent debut. The confidential S-1 filed in June and September prospectus disclosures of twelvefold revenue growth to $4.6 billion in 2025, alongside $518 billion in compute commitments, have reinforced expectations of strong public-market demand for frontier AI capabilities despite large operating losses. The planned November listing after U.S. midterms remains the key near-term catalyst, with minimal odds on smaller brackets or no IPO by late 2027 reflecting broad consensus on both timing and scale.