Recent full outage of OpenAI's Codex coding agent on September 25, lasting 56 minutes across web, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, combined with persistent October reports of server_overloaded errors, stream disconnects, and degraded performance during long-running tasks, drives the 77.5% market-implied odds for another outage before year-end. Traders cite elevated demand following the post-incident usage limit reset, repeated capacity warnings despite available quota, and a pattern of partial degradations in early October as key factors increasing instability risk. Ongoing GitHub issue volume and status page incidents underscore reliability challenges for the large language model-based tool amid scaling pressures.