Traders assign a 96.1% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because recent diplomatic assessments show no active normalization process close to completion in the remaining weeks. A Council for a Secure America report released October 8 ranked Kuwait highest among prospects, followed by Lebanon and Syria, citing shifts in leadership and security dynamics after the 2026 Iran War, yet Israeli officials previously projected timelines of four to six months for any move. Saudi Arabia ranks lower amid lingering caution, while procedural requirements for formal agreements, domestic political hurdles, and the need for coordinated U.S. or regional backing make a rapid announcement improbable. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise endorsements remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome.