Russia's consistent stance that a Putin-Zelenskyy summit can occur only after expert-level work produces a draft peace settlement has anchored trader expectations of no bilateral meeting before 2027. Kremlin statements emphasize that positions remain far apart and reject temporary ceasefires in favor of a comprehensive agreement, a position reinforced by the rejection of recent proposals for limited truces or elections-related pauses. Ongoing military operations, including continued strikes on energy infrastructure, and the absence of finalized high-level talks despite U.S. mediation efforts further limit near-term prospects for a leader summit. A verifiable breakthrough in trilateral negotiations that advances to final-stage modalities could still alter this outlook within the resolution window.