Ongoing U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast and the naval blockade of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Tehran’s foreign currency inflows, driving the rial to recent lows near 2.6 million per dollar amid hyperinflation above 70% and GDP contraction. Trader consensus clusters around 2.0–3.5 million rials per dollar by December 31 because further shadow-fleet designations and sustained export curbs point to continued depreciation, while any diplomatic progress on reopening Hormuz or easing pressure could slow the slide. The narrow spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over the pace of oil revenue recovery, Iranian Central Bank interventions, and potential late-year negotiations that could alter reserve flows before year-end resolution.