Traders see an 80.5% chance the US government will not remove public access to a major Chinese large language model in 2026, reflecting the absence of targeted regulatory action beyond existing export controls on advanced chips and investment screening. Current policy emphasizes hardware restrictions and voluntary industry guidelines rather than blocking access to models such as those from Alibaba or DeepSeek, with no confirmed executive orders or agency proposals in recent months. Competitive dynamics in AI development and concerns over model capabilities have prompted scrutiny but not outright bans on public availability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential updates to AI safety frameworks or congressional hearings, though historical patterns show such measures rarely extend to removing model access for US users.