Zohran Mamdani leads trader sentiment for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year after rising to the top of prediction markets with roughly 30% implied probability, driven by his high-profile role as New York mayor and expanding national visibility. Mark Carney follows closely, boosted by his public pushback against U.S. policy and growing international profile as Canadian prime minister. Pope Leo XIV and a sliding Donald Trump round out the main contenders, with AI figures like Dario Amodei also drawing interest after last year’s “Architects of AI” selection. TIME editors make the final call based on influence for better or worse, and the announcement is expected in early to mid-December, leaving room for late-year developments to shift momentum.