Recent orbital success on Flight 14 in September 2026, which deployed operational Starlink satellites, combined with plans for Flight 15 in November to attempt the first tower catch of a Starship upper stage, underpins the 77.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Super Heavy boosters have already been caught multiple times, while the recovered Ship 40 from July provides critical post-flight data on heat shields and engines to refine recovery hardware on the V3 design. Elon Musk has outlined reflight demonstrations by early 2027 and rapid reuse that year, aligning with SpaceX’s iterative testing pace. Key near-term catalysts include the upper-stage catch attempt and any successful reflight, though technical hurdles in heat shield durability and rapid turnaround could still influence timelines.