Recent progress on Starship includes the first orbital flight and Starlink deployment in late September 2026, plus multiple Super Heavy booster tower catches, yet the upper stage has not been caught or reflown after any mission. Ship recovery attempts remain planned for Flight 15 in November, with Elon Musk targeting initial upper-stage reflight by early 2027 and rapid full-system reuse later that year. These milestones, combined with ongoing heat shield, propulsion, and turnaround testing needs, plus historical schedule slips, underpin the market-implied 70.5% probability that full reusability will not be achieved before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the November catch attempt and any subsequent reflight data.