SpaceX’s progress toward full Starship reusability centers on tower catches and rapid reflights of both the Super Heavy booster and upper-stage Ship, milestones that remain incomplete as of mid-October 2026. Flight 14 achieved the first orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment in September, yet both stages splashed down without recovery attempts amid ongoing V3 engine and structural refinements. The planned Flight 15 catch of the Ship—targeted for November—would mark a historic first for an orbital-class vehicle, building on prior booster captures, but demonstrating subsequent inspection, refueling, and reflights of both stages before year-end faces tight scheduling, regulatory, and technical hurdles. Traders see these near-term gaps as the dominant driver behind the 67% “No” odds.