Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to serve as HHS Secretary with strong presidential backing and active involvement in MAHA initiatives, vaccine policy revisions, agency restructuring, and congressional testimony as recently as early October 2026. Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability he remains in the role through October 31 because no resignation announcements, removal signals, or shifts in White House support have emerged despite ongoing criticism from public health groups and Democratic inquiries. His public statements emphasize permanent institutional changes, and scheduled budget and oversight activities reflect ongoing tenure. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome in the narrow remaining window include a sudden health event, major scandal prompting administration pressure, or an unexpected executive decision, though current evidence shows no such developments.