The Reserve Bank of Australia's September 29 decision to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, its fourth hike of 2026, has anchored trader expectations for the November 3 meeting amid persistent inflation above the 2–3 percent target. Recent minutes highlighted materializing upside risks, including elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and stronger-than-expected domestic activity and cost pressures, prompting the board to signal readiness for further tightening if required. August CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 4.0 percent year-over-year with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6 percent, both above target, while the September-quarter CPI release on October 28 will provide the final read before the meeting. Market-implied odds currently price a 73.5 percent chance of no change and a 24.9 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase, reflecting divided bank forecasts and the RBA's data-dependent stance versus official guidance for a gradual return to target.