Recent inflation data and the RBA’s hawkish September 2026 decision to lift the cash rate to 4.60% underpin the 77.0% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2–3 meeting. Headline CPI rose to 4.0% year-ended in August while the trimmed mean held at 3.6%, reflecting ongoing domestic capacity pressures and pass-through from elevated global energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. Labor market conditions have eased modestly yet remain tighter than full employment, supporting the 20.8% odds of a further 25 basis point hike. The September-quarter CPI release on 28 October and fresh RBA forecasts will be key catalysts, with trader consensus reflecting a high bar for additional tightening after four increases this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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