**Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to “No” because the short window before the scheduled November 10–11 trilateral working-level talks in Abu Dhabi leaves little time for a fresh NATO intercept of a Russian drone.** Ongoing diplomatic momentum, including recent U.S. mediation efforts and confirmed delegations from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, has focused attention on de-escalation and post-war security arrangements rather than immediate military incidents. While Russian and Ukrainian drones have continued to stray into NATO airspace—particularly over the Baltic states and Black Sea region—most recent violations have involved Ukrainian long-range drones diverted by electronic warfare or ambiguous unidentified objects that NATO air policing has tracked without confirmed shoot-downs of Russian-origin platforms. Incidents remain sporadic, and the rapid approach of the Abu Dhabi meetings has narrowed the timeframe in which another qualifying NATO downing could occur before negotiations begin.